Iran / Hormuz: Escalation Status Orange

Last Update: August 13, 2026 · Focus: Iran threatens US security interests worldwide, escalating US-Iran control dispute over Hormuz, continued Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, Saudi oil tankers operating on “dark voyages”, Pakistan deepens cooperation with Iran, aviation, supply-chain risk

• Military: Iran has significantly intensified its deterrence posture towards the United States: The chairman of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee stated that US security interests worldwide could be targeted if Iran’s security is threatened again. At the same time, Israel continues its operations in southern Lebanon and intends to maintain troops in occupied areas. Lebanon therefore remains directly integrated into the wider Iran-Israel escalation.
• Energy: The struggle for control over the Strait of Hormuz is intensifying, with Washington and Tehran advancing competing claims of control. At the same time, the Houthi threat is increasingly forcing Saudi oil tankers departing Yanbu into “dark voyages”: Around 70 percent of west-coast cargoes recently lacked continuous AIS visibility for periods of time. Traffic through Bab al-Mandab has also declined, while Saudi Arabia is routing more oil through Suez and the SUMED pipeline.
• Diplomacy: Pakistan is deepening cooperation with Iran while simultaneously participating in the new security architecture with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. Pakistan’s defence minister met the Iranian ambassador on August 13 and called for further expansion of bilateral cooperation. Islamabad is therefore increasingly positioning itself as a bridge between Iran and its new regional counterweights, without entering into a new formal military commitment to Tehran.

Short Assessment: The situation remains at least at Escalation Status Orange, with several military and maritime dimensions at critical levels. The most important change on August 13 is the geographic expansion of Iran’s deterrence threat: Potential US targets are no longer limited to Iran and the Gulf. At the same time, Hormuz is increasingly becoming an open contest for control, while Saudi Arabia’s alternative export route through the Red Sea is also facing growing security pressure. For companies, risks to energy supply, shipping, insurance and supply chains continue to rise. Hapag-Lloyd now estimates additional Middle East conflict-related costs in the second quarter at around USD 600 million. Existing EASA warnings remain active until August 31; no new tightening was issued on August 13.